In recent years, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam has become one of the 15 most dynamic economies in the world. To the point that the level of growth at the end of 2019 was well above what was planned by the National Assembly (AN) and the projections provided by international organizations such as the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the sian Development Bank (ADB) who estimated an increase between 6.5% and 6.8%.
The increase in the vietmaniese conomy by the end of 2019 was 7.02% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
In this way, it was among the nations with the greatest economic growth at the regional and even global level, where for five consecutive years its GDP has been above 6.2% and an average of 6.82% in ten years.
As business and economic threats from the coronavirus outbreak continue, Travel bans have been imposed on millions of people and many countries have quarantined their entire population. Businesses are facing lost revenue and supply chain disruption and as a reult there has been significant volatility in financial markets.
In the best scenario is COVID-19 will have an impact for the world of losses valued at 76,963 million dollars, that is, 0.1% of total global GDP, while for emerging Asian nations (including Vietnam) losses of 0.2% of GDP are expected, valued at around 15,658 million dollars (ADB, 2020).
In a moderate scenario of the impact of COVID-19, the world would have losses of 0.2% as a percentage of total global GDP, with a moment of around 155,948 million dollars. Meanwhile, the emerging economies of Asia, including Vietnam, would jointly affect 0.2% of their combined GDP for a value of 22,284 million dollars. It must be assumed that the improvement of conditions in China may change the impact scenario for Asia, but not for the United States (BAD, 2020).
In the worst-case scenario, losses of 0.4% of total global GDP are expected, valued at around 346,975 million dollars. In this sense, the emerging economies of Asia, considering Vietnam, would have a loss of 0.5% of the combined GDP to the value of 42,243 million dollars (ADB, 2020).
Vietnam can undoubtedly be an economy that manages to withstand the effects of the global recession generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This depends on the level of measures by the Vietnamese government, as well as the confrontation with the virus, which up to now has been internationally recognized for the way it has acted.
The truth is that Vietnamese financial institutions are currently better capitalized, which allows them to better face the current adverse situation in relation to other previous crises such as those of 1997, the 2002 one with SARS, the 2008-2009 one that began at the end of 2007. Without However, the issue of liquidity can be a problem, as it is below previous crises. The unprecedented nature and serious concerns of the increase in the size of the external shock increase financial volatility that may affect the economies of the region, through equity and bond markets, credit, and foreign exchange channels. Vietnam in particular is vulnerable through high domestic debt t countries like China and Malaysia.
Monetary policy applied by the State Bank of Vietnam (BEV) including the regulatory control, reduction of rates, refinancing rate from 6% to 5% and discount rate from 4 to 3.5% stand out. The government also approved preferential loans for an amount of 12.4 billion dollars for affected businesses, as well as the BEV reduced the limits on short-term deposit rates by 0.25% and 0.5% on short-term loan rates.
Vietnam has undoubtedly had negative impacts due to its open economy position. Under the guidance of the PCV and the government, effective measures have been taken to control the advance of the pandemic in the country. The economic policies have been well thought out.